Professor David Menashri has written a diplomatically balanced and reasoned summary. But, he is probably wrong on a number of points and unless I am deluded he will know this. He will know that by restricting his piece to the diplomatic balanced and unsensational he has been unrealistically optimistic.
He refers to a series of mysterious explosions, assassinations of nuclear experts, and signs of a cyber war as if these things could have being done by anyone. It is virtually certain that Israel, perhaps with US assistance, was behind these events and will be behind more of the same over the coming year.
He suggests that there are cracks growing within the Iranian regime. He is saying that he hopes that if the West can mount sufficient pressure on Tehran that these cracks may turn into ruptures. This outcome seems highly unlikely to me. AFAIAC the Iranian regime’s mentality is two basic tracks; one for external expansion and the other for internal repression. I can see no significant kinks in either line. IMO the only external power capable of influencing Tehran is China and for pragmatic reasons they seem unlikely to want to use the influence they do have.
What if Iran becomes a nuclear power? Without overt action it seems more like a question of when not if. When they become a nuclear power they will be able to locate their WMDs with various sympathetic groups around the middle east and beyond. These nuclear devices will not have to be large to be effective! The Iranian’s are also expanding the missile systems. Perhaps they aim to get to the point where like the superpowers China, Russia and the US they will have thousands of ICBM capable of delivering instant genocide to anyone who opposes them anywhere on the planet.
Professor Menashri writes about what is happening at the moment and what he wants to happen in the near future. The rise and rise of Tehran’s influence military strength and asymmetrical methods for delivering its messages will, if not stopped, continue to expand beyond the current decade. It is this expansion, not their current capabilities, that will eventually threaten us all.
