Let's see if I have this right:
1. On April 1 Israel bombed the Iranian embassy in Syria, killing two Iranian generals. (This would be the second embassy bombed by Israel. The first was the British embassy in Rome in 1946 by Irgun.)
2. Iran vowed to retaliate, taking its time. It spent the next two weeks in a huddle with Russia and China figuring out an appropriate response which would not result in expanding the conflict in the Middle East, something Israel clearly wants.
Iran, Russia, and China have a "partnership"; they have carried out extensive military drills and operations in support of this partnership.
3. On April 14, having already warned the US of what it intended to do, Iran launched a barrage of drones toward Israel, followed by two more waves of missiles.
4. With the aid of the US, France, and UK, Israel was able to shoot down most of the drones, spending about a billion dollars worth of arms in the process of shooting down obsolete cheap Iranian armament.
5. Iran was also able to do damage to the two military bases from where the attack on the Iranian embassy originated. Military personnel was evacuated, but damage to the bases was sustained. The extent of the damage is contested by the two sides.
6. Iran declared that the incident was closed so far as they were concerned.
7. Israel vowed to retaliate, but a phone call from Biden put a stop to that...for who knows how long.
The way I read this is that
1. Israel failed to goad Iran into escalating the Gaza war into a larger regional conflict.
2. Iran was able to deplete Israel's expensive anti-missile ordonance.
3. Iran was able to demonstrate the precision and effectiveness of the strikes it actually meant to complete.
4. Iran was able to show that despite advanced warning, Israel would have been unable to shoot down all the drones without help form US, UK, and France, which shot down about half the drones.
5. Iran was able to show that it could act intelligently, rationally, and that it too was backed by powerful friends.
6. The operation was carried out in a way that allowed both sides to save face, which is a tricky tactical feat.
7. Hamas has already shown that the IDF is a crap army good mostly at shooting down women and children.
8. Now Iran has shown that without outside help, Israel is a paper tiger with nuclear weapons.
Have I missed anything?
Posted by: JAB | Apr 15 2024 0:15 utc
