Iran-Saudi Tensions and the Future of Oil

A little piece on Iran and the House of Saud that might get people thinking longer term. For those wishing for a takeover within a year, you probably don't have to read it.

In my day job, apart from working in a treasury dealing room, I also write geo-political analyses as a hold over from my last job with a particular interest in the Middle East and US Relations pertaining to that area. I have written a longer piece that I would be happy to send out to people but below are some bullet points in summary.

* With Obama negotiating a plan with Iran to transition them to peaceful development of nuclear power (however successful that may be), as well as Saudi moves to break Shale, relations between the House of Saud and the White House have degraded somewhat.
* The only winner of the US 'liberation' of Iraq was Iran with Iraq now a Shia-influenced basket case.
* Today's news that Iranian troops will now officially be entering Syria to help the Assad regime (not necessarily only targeting ISIS) as well as Russian (traditional supporter of Syria) air power targeting US backed rebels rather than ISIS, reinforces this authors' belief that the Asaad regime will remain in power with not only stronger ties to Shia Iran but also potentially a remaining Russian presence in country.
* There is a potential from these developments for a triumvirate of Shia power brokers to dictate realpolitik in the northern Gulf (although the Alawis still will be a minority although stronger in their own country). This stronger Shia presence in the northern gulf will complicate matters for Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States closer to Hormuz.
* Saudi Arabian troops in northern Yemen as well as targeted surveillance and disruption of Iran weapons deliveries into Aden and other Yemeni ports portents growing antagonism between the Gulfs two biggest rivals.
* In comments after the initial announcement of a US-Iranian accord over the nuclear issue, a Saudi minister in the US stated that "Saudi Arabia will always maintain parity with Iranian military power" and there are unconfirmed rumors that Saudi Arabia has sided with Israel to basically say to the US, if Iran goes nuclear, we are right behind them.

Longer Term OUtcomes
I think in the next 5 years we will see growing tension in the gulf between Saudi Arabia and Iran, weakened US resolve and ability to impose security and growing instability on the petro-logistics supply routes that will apply upward pressure on already climbing oil prices.