re: iraq's election - everyone
OK guys here's the deal. It's time to put our money where our mouths are!! Let's bet $5.00 payable to the Tsunami victims relief fund of our choice if we are wrong.
I'm betting that the (Sistani) Iraq National Alliance gets up but maybe Tou4 and K2High want to bet $5.00 bucks that Allawi gets up.
Anyone else may join in.
The candidates are:
"Under the proportional representation system which was introduced to Iraq by the United Nations, the country will be treated as a single constituency, and each voter will cast one vote either for one of the twenty-five independent candidates or for a list representing one or more parties. While vigorous competition is expected during the elections, realistically only a few lists, in particular the Iraqi National Alliance list brokered by Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, the two joint Kurdish lists, and the list of interim Prime Minister Ayad Allawi are expected to win a substantial number of seats in the national assembly. For the others, success, if any, will be limited to the top tier of the list. The following is a review of the major lists:
(1) The Iraqi National Alliance
By all accounts, the most important list of candidates is the Iraqi National Alliance. The list, primarily representing the Shi'ite majority and fashioned in consultation with Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, offers 228 candidates divided equally between representatives of major Shi'ite political parties and independent candidates who are mainly Shi'ite, but include Sunnis, Failis (Kurdish Shi'ites), Turkmen, and Yazdis (another Kurdish splinter group).
The political parties represented on the list are the Islamic Da'wa Party, headed by Ibrahim al-Ja'fari, interim Vice President of Iraq; the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), headed by Abd al-Aziz al-Hakim, who also heads the national alliance list; and the Iraqi National Congress, headed by Dr. Ahmad Chalabi. A less significant party is Hizbullah, headed by Abd al-Karim al-Mahmadawi. A significant independent candidate on the list is Dr. Hussein Shahristani, who put the list together in consultation with Sistani. Shahristani, a former nuclear physicist who refused to be co-opted into Saddam's weapons program and was subsequently imprisoned, is considered a likely candidate to be the next prime minister of Iraq, a post he had turned down when it was offered to him by Ambassador Paul Bremer when the interim government was constituted. While the list represents a broad segment of the Iraqi society, there is little that it has offered in terms of its political program and how it might restore stability to the country. Noticed for his absence from the list is Muqtada al-Sadr, who has refused to offer his support for the National Alliance.
(2) The Kurdish List
The second most significant list is that of the two key Kurdish parties, the Kurdistan Democratic Party headed by Mas'oud Barazani and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan headed by Jalal Talabani. This is the first attempt by the two Kurdish parties to campaign jointly both for the National Assembly and for the autonomous parliament of Kurdistan. In launching their joint list, Barazani declared that it was "an historic agreement" that would protect the rights of the Kurdish people and help to build "a united federal democratic Iraq." The Kurds are clearly concerned that the election of a majority Shi'ite members of the national assembly might frustrate their expectations for a federation and, more significantly, their demand for the inclusion of the oil rich city of Kirkuk into such a federation. At the moment the status of Kirkuk is uncertain as Arabs and Turkmen demand that it remains outside any future Kurdish autonomous region. The Kurds are also concerned that the list of the Iraqi National Alliance has been able to attract the Turkmen who make up a substantial percentage of the population of Kirkuk and who are determined to prevent the city from falling under Kurdish control. The Kurds have also lost the al-Shammar tribe in the north, President's al-Yawer's tribe, which has deserted the president and the Kurds and opted to go with the Alliance. Under the present political constellation, the only remaining natural allies of the Kurds are the Communists and the Iraqi Islamic Party.
(3) The Iraqis (al-Iraqiyoon)
The Iraqi list "al-Iraqiyoon" was submitted by al-Wifaq al-Watani (the National Accord Party), headed by the interim Prime Minister Ayad Allawi. It comprises members of his party as well as other political parties, tribal figures, and independents. The list includes the Movement of Democratic Iraqis which is headed by Qassim Daoud, the Minister for National Security. In terms of independents, the list includes Hussein al-Sadr, a Shi'ite cleric (uncle of Muqtada al-Sadr); the Sunni tribal chief, Nazzar al-Khaizaran; and the spokesman for Allawi, Tha'ir al-Naqib, the brother of the Minister of Interior Fallah al-Naqib.
The list offers 240 candidates. In announcing the list, interim Prime Minister Allawi offered a broad outline of political, economic and social program. He emphasized the critical importance of restoring security, including the rebuilding of the army as a precursor for demanding the withdrawal of the multinational forces from "our beloved Iraq." Allawi also highlighted his program for better education, health and welfare. In the economic domain he called for reducing the reliance on one sector (oil) and opening the economy to market forces. In an effort to gain the support of the Ba'thists, Allawi declared that he distinguished between "the criminals of the previous regime and those who had no blood on their hands." He also pledged to fight terrorism and extremism.
(4) The Iraqi (al-Iraqiya)
This list, submitted by the interim President Ghazi al-Yawer, comprises mainly tribal leaders. Clearly, al-Yawer's prospects were dealt a major blow when his uncle, one of the leaders of the Shammar Tribe, the largest tribe in Iraq with both Sunni and Shi'ite elements, opted to go with the "Alliance" list. According to reports in the Iraqi media, there were discussion about the merging of Allawi's and al-Yawer's lists to increase their prospects but negotiations have not been successful because of disagreement regarding which of the two leaders should head the list.
(5) The Iraqi Communist Party
The Iraqi Communist Party, the oldest Communist party in the Arab world, submitted a list of 275 candidates, including 91 women. The list is headed by the secretary general of the party Hamid Majid Moussa. Also on the list is Mufid al-Jaza'iri, the interim minister of culture. That a Communist could serve as interim minister vividly demonstrates the progress Iraq has made in less than two years toward democracy and pluralism.
(6) The Iraqi Islamic Party
Despite the calls by theOrganization of Islamic Scholars (the major Sunni clerical organization) to boycott of the elections, the Iraqi Islamic Party (a Sunni party) under the leadership of Muhsin Abd al-Hamid, a former member of Iraq's Governing Council, submitted a list of 275 candidates. However, this party continues to call for postponing the elections and refuses to say whether it will campaign actively. On December 27, the Islamic Party has announced it was withdrawing from the elections.
Another Sunni party, known as the Islamic Democratic Current, has submitted a list of 60 candidates supposedly representing academics, tribal chiefs and women. No information is available on this group.
(7) The Constitutional Monarchy Movement
The Constitutional Monarchy Movement submitted a list of 275 candidates headed by Sherif Ali bin al-Hussein, the claimant to the Hashemite throne in Iraq. The list will probably appeal to the old generation of Iraqis who were born under the monarchy, saw it destroyed in a bloody coup in 1958, and experienced more than four decades of repression which ensued. However, the monarchy in Iraq was associated with the Sunni domination in government and, before he can ascend the throne, Sherif Ali will need to convince many skeptics that such ascendancy will enhance national unity and equality. His statement that 69% of the Iraqis wish to see the restoration of the monarchy will be put to test soon.
Other Lists
A number of additional parties have presented lists to the High Commission for Elections. The Unity Party joined two other unnamed parties to form the Nasserite Socialist Party (named after Gamal Abd Al-Nasser) which emphasizes Arabism and Islam. A list was submitted by the Liberal Mission Gathering, whose objectives are 'justice, equality and freedom." A list of 63 candidates was submitted by the old secular-liberal Sunni politician, Adnan al-Pachachi, a former foreign minister of Iraq. Although al-Pachachi has submitted a list, he continues to insist that the elections be postponed to allow all segments of the Iraqi society to participate in the drafting of the constitution and has left open his options whether to take part in the elections. Al-Pachachi's own prospects were dimmed by the withdrawal of two key figures on his list, Mahdi al-Hafidh, the minister of planning and Ayham al-Samera'i the minister of electricity, both of whom joined the list of the prime minister. It would seem that the dimmer the prospects of a candidate, the louder the candidate's voice for postponing the elections.
Former army General Najib al-Salhi, secretary-general of "Free Officers and Civilians Movement," submitted a list of 126 candidates, 42 of whom are women and 25 of whom were officers in the former Iraqi armed forces and include Ba'thists who, like al-Salhi himself, left Iraq because of disagreement with Saddam's policies.
If I get it wrong (BIG chance - my track record's not great) I'll give my $5.00 to the Salvos (collecting via the service desk of any Woolworths or Safeways Store).
