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Iridium Certus launch, page-6

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13/01/23

11:35

Post #: 65673596
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Originally posted by Veecat: ↑

I do not think these are our devices, Certus has actually been active for some time with other products already out there using it I believe, but perhaps no personal devices yet launched. There are I believe 5-6 maybe more companies making devices to be sold using Iridium Certus network, so we will not be the only one but Go I think is the market leading device and our Certus device may be the lynch pin of Iridium's suite of products in this class.

Our device when released will be more like Go, the ones showed there seem to be hardware for a system to be affixed to a boat or the like, not a personal device, or they are the innards of the device which may be the same for all manufacturers then the shell and functionalities are built off this?

What does not add up to me is we have been told the following:
1. In late August 2022 we are in advanced stages of negotiations on a Certus Sub deal.
2. Iridium do not want to launch new product over holiday period and also need to stock up.
3. There will be a global launch of Certus (is this for the personal device space?)
4. Yet other products seem to be launched already?

I would have thought it a good idea to launch pre Christmas and also with or without much stock, create buzz, create backog of orders etc. But maybe not and I make these comments with no experience of working in the retail or communications space.

I think we did not not have much stock at all so they pushed it all back then Christmas approached and it was bad timing, then Iridium launched the messaging tool plus they may not want to launch until they agree on a deal of terms for the sub revenue. Hence nothing is happening just yet. But it must be pretty bloody close!

I originally thought it could be June last year or earlier, the time to market has been quite slow now especially as Certus has been around for 12 months plus now I think. We may have pumped $5 mill plus into this device development so really needs to deliver good margins and what not. A concern for me is the company seems to view oeprational cash flow as the bottom line but we are spending consistently $2 mill a year on R & D if you go to through the last 5 years of 4C's so we need to be making $3 mill a year plus on operational cash flow to support this spend do we not? Hoping it might be a period for 4-5 years where R & D does drop away but Zoleo may need more enhancements as mobile phones enter this space as we need to keep ahead of them and what not. This is an area which has also been discussed as we have so shell out for Zoleo R & D so if we are making $1 mill a year on royalties but spending $1 plus on Zoleo enhancements again the net margin is not coming through. This will of course scale up over time but it is a bug bear if we are spending a fortune on R & D for Zoleo then selling at next to no margin to RoadPost whereas they should be buying them at a loss from us or the R & D should be split otherwise.

Market cap factors all this in, any queries I have put to management they have seemed confident and recent share buying signals the same so we may well be on the cusp of activity which will anwer all of these questions and get this thing really fird up so despite above comments which I more rate as discussion I will await the 4C and Certus launch before being too critical. The next 2-3 months though are important as we need to see some confirmation of the direction paying off.

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fair points. Maybe I got the Certus devices wrong then

they are definitely still spending money on product enhancement. This guy just got a job to work on launching the redesign of the Zoleo app. I doubt he’s working for free.

BCC Price at posting: 22.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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