iron ore & china

China's weekly Iron Ore inventories are just over 74MMT.
Back in September they were over 90MMT and that was the lowest they had been for over a year.

Now the price of Iron Ore is $158/MT with Goa shut down and the Australian Cyclone season here it is my bet that the Chinese are going to keep driving the price up, especially with the commencement of their 150 Bill worth of infrastructure projects.
A lot of these projects have already started.

IMO until those Port inventories are back up to normal levels, the IO price will continue to rocket.

I suspect we will be looking at a price over $180/MT. before the end of Feb.

Then the question is will it all come crashing down.
Maybe, maybe not.

I know one thing for sure all these analyst who talk about the end of days for the Chinese economy don't know what their talking about.

I live in Asia and see first hand what is going on.
Small out of the way towns are getting new roads built to them, new modern shopping malls, large home improvement stores equivalent to Bunnings are springing up everywhere.
The shops are full of people, wages are at all time highs!
It is all happening at an unbelievable pace, with some towns becoming unrecognizable with in two years.

Most people in Asia want a new home for their family and they want it in the village or town that they grew up in. IMO it is the main driving force behind the growth in the Asian economies.
Almost all people in Asia Know some one or have met someone with a modern house.
It gives people the sort of face their ancestors could only dream about.

Now the important thing to know is the vast majority of new homes in Asia are made with steel reinforced concrete slabs and steel wall framing.

IMO all these people who work so hard in these factories across Asia are one day going to start coming home to roost and once they start doing it in large enough numbers you can forget about IO selling under 200 bucks a ton again.

The doomsayers were saying that Atlas won't be making a profit with Iron Ore under $80/mt.
The questions is, if they get another $100 bucks a ton and they are producing over 7MTPA will they then be doing ok?

The Boom is not over it was just teething!