As I said in a previous post IMO $50 a ton, hard to see it happening. It would require every single mine in China running at a loss or closing. It would destroy their industry IMO.
P.S IMO G.Jones has done a excellent job during a very difficult period, the Share price is reflective of macro events Globally, these are beyond his control. I commend him on his efforts.
from mining.com,
'Not one Chinese iron mine makes money at $80
Whatever the new floor turns out to be – and it seems more and more unlikely that it will be as robust as $120 – China has an interest in seeing that it does not go too low:
China still sucks in the stuff, albeit more slowly. And it is happy with the rate: a low price is not in its short term interests. That is because, as well as being the world’s biggest consumer, China is also a producer. Its myriad small miners, which already contend with low-grade deposits, are less efficient than global peers. Spot prices of $90-$100/t in 2008 had half of China’s iron ore industry running at a loss, notes Raw Materials Group. Their cost today is between $80-$170/t.
For comparison, it costs BHP and Rio between $40-$50/t to land ore in China. Chinese ore output could fall from last year’s 320m tonnes to 120m-200m in 2020, RMG estimates.
Neither is the outlook for China's mines getting any better. The iron content of domestic ore currently stands at only 20%, down significantly from 30% in 2004 and on its way to 15% according to research by investment bank Standard Chartered."
