Iron ore hits new four-month high

Iron ore hits new four-month high
Business Spectator
Daniel Palmer

The price of iron ore has moved to a new four-month high and extended its run of positive sessions to six in the process.
At the end of the latest session, benchmark iron ore for immediate delivery to the port of Tianjin in China was trading at $US63.90 a tonne, up 0.2 per cent from its prior close of $US63.80 a tonne.
The recent rally has driven the commodity to its highest mark since mid-February and almost 37 per cent above the 10-year low of $US46.70 a tonne it touched in April.
Last week's gains were driven by news of falling stockpiles at Chinese ports, with steadier gains this week coming amid mixed developments.
On the positive side, Argonaut Securities has declared optimism the worst is behind China's steel sector, which would bode well for iron ore, a key ingredient in steel-making.
“[China's steel sector] has reached an inflection point on the back of an improving supply and demand outlook," Helen Lau, a Hong Kong-based analyst with Argonaut said, according toBloomberg.
"Demand recovery, albeit lacklustre over the short term, will accelerate on the back of ongoing fiscal stimulus and monetary easing policies.”
Ms Lau said the Chinese steel market will move into a supply deficit this year, which could help iron ore prices rise 18 per cent next year, according to Argonaut.
The confidence is shared by few other analysts, with several maintaining forecasts for a fall into the $US30s and the majority falling somewhere in the $US45-$US55 a tonne range.
“The outlook remains unchanged,” Goldman Sachs said in a report released earlier this week. "Chinese steel consumption is contracting and we expect seaborne iron ore demand to peak next year.”
Goldman has been one of the biggest bears through the last six months and remains confident the rally is "on borrowed time".
Joining the fray overnight was Societe Generale, with the French bank downgrading its iron ore price estimate for the next few years to broadly match the majority of its peers.
Societe's analysts tip prices to "conservatively" average $US55 per tonne in the near-term and about $US70 a tonne in the medium-term. This is about $US20 shy of its previous outlook.
Meanwhile, weak Chinese inflation data on Tuesday was seen as a mixed blessing for iron ore prices as while it indicates softness in the world's second largest economy, it also may force Beijing to deliver more stimulus, which would be seen as a positive for the market.