@wot You say "BHP/Rio..leading to collusion/ massive shortage...

@wot You say "BHP/Rio..leading to collusion/ massive shortage and a poss price spike back to 150+" (sorry, I don't find quoting intuitive on this site)

Your statements seem to imply that BHP/RIO hold all the cards. They don't. They are not in a nice place either - hence SP dive. They have little if any control over demand and not that much control over supply. Two reasons (more knowledgeable amongst us may be able to add more): 1. they have competitors (Vale and others ramping up in Africa) and 2. they have paid big to increase production and the profitability of their expansion is dependent on volume. Hence they can't decrease supply.

Yes, they could in the absence of laws and competitive spirit collude to make the price go up markedly but they are only going to do that if it makes more profit for them, which it won't (considering their expensive expansion).