I'm not and expert and mate, I hope you're right but it doesn't seem to be working out so far. Price of ore has taken a massive dive ($160 to $70 within 2yrs), when is this collusion going to come in to effect?
I can see that sort of collusion working for a little while but unless the big three are really good buddies and have hard and fast rules, it's just going to revert to any other market with supply and demand the major drivers. What I'm getting at is if you drive the price up by cutting supply way below your capacity, you are going to have to be very disciplined not to try to sell your extra tonnes into the high price market aren't you?
Having said that, perhaps the IO market is different. It's not like there's anything else that can replace steel at a similar price. When there's a cyclone in QLD and bananas go through the roof in price, I just get apples. Guess IO consumers don't have that option.
Like I said, I'm no expert and I'm not trying to ruffle feathers. Interested in your thoughts.
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