The current conspiracy that bhp/rio with their supply is a weapon to kill off the high cost producers is no different to the previous scenario when the demand -supply curve imbalance favors the producers. Then the Chinese were very unhappy but that sentiment has swapped to miners. Every one is demonising bhp/Rio but FMG is getting away from the supply blame scott free!
In 'normal' circumstancs I would be looking to go long FMG as a better leveraged play but I just can't see IO demand recovery this time around. This time around the major supplier's ramp up has been established with more coming in the form of Roy Hill so unless China can stoke their growth exponentially and suspect that involves many more rate cuts, then I have to agree with consensus forecast of low IO prices. However there are many levers China can keep pulling but in the recent past inflation in terms of real estate "bubble forming" was the main threat. It is like US trying to stimulate so that the looser policy find funding in the right sectors and not the unintended short cut to condos and stock market.
It is with these reasons I am bearish on this sector with just the knee jerk rate cut.
The current conspiracy that bhp/rio with their supply is a...
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Last
$21.41 |
Change
-0.260(1.20%) |
Mkt cap ! $65.92B | |||
| Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
| $21.52 | $21.67 | $21.30 | $150.5M | 7.000M |
Buyers (Bids)
| No. | Vol. | Price($) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 93 | $21.40 |
Sellers (Offers)
| Price($) | Vol. | No. |
|---|---|---|
| $21.41 | 12657 | 3 |
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| Last trade - 16.10pm 28/06/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
| FMG (ASX) Chart |