iron ore price, page-85

Crazy, I don't PRETEND to hold any insights to the market forces but I have been trading forex market for some time to realise that there is a fair bit of 'manipulations' going on. We can complain or shout but we are just the lone voices that no body cares so we try to play the games together with these dark forces in our corner. If you pull a chart of FMG weekly ( I based my investments on weekly, daily too much noise) you will see the 3 lower high since feb 2014. Since that initial high 2 succeeding high rotated down with a shooting star and currently no sign that it is turning to form a high yet. Currently I see a mid range support broken and closed below last week and I "see" or expect it to slowly or quickly test the low formed in 2012, 2013 before I will decide if it will continue down or bounce. This is what I see and will act when I can see a reversal at these key levels.

No body including AF knows where the reversal point is BUT at some point it will reverse. At the reversal point I will then have to decide if the "bounce" has momentum logically in the form of the IO spot triggers. Your guess is as good as mine as to where it will be from here on.

The Q always at the fore front is what is the true cost of FMG's production. How low can the spot price be before FMG operations are not sustaining taking into account the debt repayment component. Plenty of misleading comments out in the public as to what their true cost are. Management flagged $50 which if it is the true cost will mean that a very high chance they can weather the current supply glut. Analyst disagree about the cost. Who is right, I don't know. This is an industry where that cost figure is guarded for a reason unlike say gold miners where they will readily disclose their cost figure maybe not in a voluntary way,. They don't want Chinese steel mills to know the exact figure so that the buyer can have an upper hand in contract forward orders for the shipments.

So unfortunately I don't even have year 10 level in accounting so the figures are all mumbo jumbo to me and I can't even tell if window dressing is massaged into a figure to mis-inform. Plenty of examples out there Enron comes to mind. I flip a chart and I see the market pricing FMG and it is to the down side so I will follow the market crowd. No point fighting this crowd unless I can see a turning point. I am publicly nominating a turning point level to re-visit. When it gets there I will decide but until then I am not buying yet. Sorry a long post. I am not a down ramper in FMG just a realist.