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gordon2

5,575 Posts.

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04/10/14

10:59

Post #: 14075015
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Originally posted by AverageJoe ↑

Crazy, I don't PRETEND to hold any insights to the market forces but I have been trading forex market for some time to realise that there is a fair bit of 'manipulations' going on. We can complain or shout but we are just the lone voices that no body cares so we try to play the games together with these dark forces in our corner. If you pull a chart of FMG weekly ( I based my investments on weekly, daily too much noise) you will see the 3 lower high since feb 2014. Since that initial high 2 succeeding high rotated down with a shooting star and currently no sign that it is turning to form a high yet. Currently I see a mid range support broken and closed below last week and I "see" or expect it to slowly or quickly test the low formed in 2012, 2013 before I will decide if it will continue down or bounce. This is what I see and will act when I can see a reversal at these key levels.

No body including AF knows where the reversal point is BUT at some point it will reverse. At the reversal point I will then have to decide if the "bounce" has momentum logically in the form of the IO spot triggers. Your guess is as good as mine as to where it will be from here on.

The Q always at the fore front is what is the true cost of FMG's production. How low can the spot price be before FMG operations are not sustaining taking into account the debt repayment component. Plenty of misleading comments out in the public as to what their true cost are. Management flagged $50 which if it is the true cost will mean that a very high chance they can weather the current supply glut. Analyst disagree about the cost. Who is right, I don't know. This is an industry where that cost figure is guarded for a reason unlike say gold miners where they will readily disclose their cost figure maybe not in a voluntary way,. They don't want Chinese steel mills to know the exact figure so that the buyer can have an upper hand in contract forward orders for the shipments.

So unfortunately I don't even have year 10 level in accounting so the figures are all mumbo jumbo to me and I can't even tell if window dressing is massaged into a figure to mis-inform. Plenty of examples out there Enron comes to mind. I flip a chart and I see the market pricing FMG and it is to the down side so I will follow the market crowd. No point fighting this crowd unless I can see a turning point. I am publicly nominating a turning point level to re-visit. When it gets there I will decide but until then I am not buying yet. Sorry a long post. I am not a down ramper in FMG just a realist.

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AJ,
Thanks for the post. It is nice to see some constructive opinions. I totally agree as i have been watching this being manipulated for a long time. Unfortunately i have a paper loss that i am not happy about and have been averaging down bit by bit at every TP only to see it being pushed further down.
Nerver mind as previous lows have always seen quick reversals however this has been a slow downward push.
Previous Lows......
17th May 2010 $3.72
10th Sept 2012 $2.99
24th June 2013 $3.04
3rd Oct 2014 $3.45
The only other major fall was in nov 2008 $1.80 which lasted till Jan 2009 $1.77.
I do not have a crystal ball and trust some of the comments made on here are beneficial however i have found that a lot of them are complete rubbish.
I am planning on a low of around $3.00 - $3.20 and then a return to sensible levels.
Anyway that my opinion and what the hell would i know. DYOR
Cheers

Last edited by gordon2: 04/10/14

FMG Price at posting: $3.45 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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(20min delay)
Last $18.14		Change 0.020(0.11%)		Mkt cap ! $55.85B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$17.90	$18.75	$17.75	$171.0M	9.460M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
3	1701	$18.10

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
$18.14	41253	3

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
3	1701	18.100
1	1200	18.070
5	104910	18.050
1	2200	18.040
2	16071	18.030

Price($)	Vol.	No.
18.140	41253	3
18.150	13787	3
18.160	11480	5
18.170	9968	1
18.180	11939	3

Last trade - 16.10pm 12/11/2024 (20 minute delay)

FMG (ASX) Chart

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