Er6n,
-What's to Say that the chinese mines will open with these current prices?
-Yes history shows this time of year the price of IO generally does decline. But as we all know the cycle has been broken thus price fluctuations most probable wont follow previous trends.
- Just because some steel mills have shut down does not mean steel output will decrease.The lost tonnes will be passed onto more efficient mills who are more environmentally friendly.
-Chinas crackdownn on pollution can only be a positive for oz io as our grades are much superior to chinese Thus mills may opt for higher grade sea borne ore.
-The world bank, Westpac,Morgan stanley,Merryl lynch, vale, WA government etc etc have all estimated a price of $70-80t.
For every argument ER6N there is a counter one but i suppose time will tell. Your arguments are valid ER6N i just feel things are just not that black and white at the moment.
Thanks
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