I am generally a fan of RM, and he makes a lot of seemingly well thought out observations in this article. I think his comment regarding a price of $10 is a throw away line designed to keep his name in the spotlight, something had us also quite good at. He doesn't actually predict that price.
Surely the floor price for a commodity will ultimately be set by the lowest cost producer unless there are stockpiles that will take years to consume (remember wool in the 90's).
Is anyone making any money at$20?
Iron Ore Price, page-1810
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