Industry experts like you all know fully well....
The end game for the Trio is to remove at least 200mil tonnes/yr from the market to achieve supply/demand equilibrium (US$70/t).
As you have pointed out, the Chinese IO producers are heavily subsidised and will stay on the game much longer than anyone can anticipated. The Chinese gov is determined to keep the IO domestic production industry alive just like the US needs the Oil shale industry.
The end game casualties would likely to be juniors and mid size producers from Brazil and Australia.
Shutting down FMG and Roy Hill would remove 200mil+ tonnes from the market immediately, and would make a huge difference for the Trio...
You are right this IO war will be long and hard for high cost producers... I won't try the bottom picking because the next one likely to be ARI, BCI, MGX and FMG
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Industry experts like you all know fully well.... The end game...
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