I'm back for a celebrity post boys. The recent dead-count bounce...

I'm back for a celebrity post boys.

The recent dead-count bounce in the iron ore price has, imo, put the final nail in Fortescue's coffin. If IO stays at $50-$55 then Roy Hill will definitely proceed, may not have if prices spiked below $30 say before September. Likewise other expansions will go on.

China steel prices still melting lower, which indicates this is a short squeeze in IO combined with insane hopium levels (IO price optimism on BHP only increasing to 275 instead of 290mtpa -we're saved!).

As someone else noted, why the hell would you pay 10% or above to refinance (when you consider discount of bonds it is actually over 10% they're paying) if you're making $15/ton based on current prices?! Something stinks like $hit.

C1 costs were $25.90 in quarter just gone, now total delivered costs (C1+shipping+royalties+admin) will be $25 next FY?! Cost reductions they have had were benefitted from sharp $A, halving of oil price. Can't keep banking on that. Surely the 'low hanging fruit' is picked first... cut costs at the snap the fingers now? I don't buy it.

It looks like to me they jawboned the stock as hard as they could to secure financing... greasy tactics if so, but it's worked... for now....

Chee-ars.