I guess the problem is that they would never have been able to...

I guess the problem is that they would never have been able to sell 340m at prices above $60. Pre expansion production along with everybody else's previous expansion numbers, maybe. I think your right re the miscalculation of the majors on how desperately high cost producers would cling to their livelihoods and how much its going to hurt the majors in this strategy. I tend to think that none of the majors will release to the market as much as they're beating their chests about. In particular vale - I have a feeling they will not have a net increase to the market at all after their expansion as so much of their current production is loss making atm.