This is an extract from an article in The Australian Friday 5.14 pm today by Paul Cleary
The Trump agenda will in due course be good news for Australian producers of iron ore and coal. This is because anything Trump does to rebuild the rust belt through public sector investment is likely to be very steel-intensive.
China’s stimulus program has underpinned the recent rally in iron ore and coking coal prices this year, which reflects the recovery in the annual growth of completed floorspace to about 20 per cent.
But the Trump stimulus will extend the global construction pipeline, and that is likely to buoy demand for key commodities for some time to come. Australia supplies 58 per cent of the global iron ore trade, and 65 per cent of coking coal trade, which are the two key inputs to steelmaking.
UNSW professor Tim Harcourt said the recent momentum behind metal and coal prices would continue as a result of the Trump election because markets are factoring in stronger infrastructure investment in the US. This momentum will continue even if interest rates continue to rise in the US.
“He will give a boost to commodity prices no what happens to rates as a result,” Harcourt said. “He wants to be a Ronald Reagan-type president, spending big. Markets are more tolerant of republican presidents who are big spenders.”
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