Iron Ore Price, page-1538

I assume FMG's executive management by now expects to see the share price low because they, by now certainly if they didn't before) understand where they are in the mining cycle. I assume they assume there will be shake outs on the supply side as unproductive miners (both in china and outside china) are knocked out of business because their costs are too high. Meanwhile whilst FMG are profitable with a breakeven of (slightly above) but headed towards US$39/t they simply have to wait for the shake-out to occur. When the mining cycle moves forward (after shakeouts and as demand for iron ore (steel really) grows again) the price for ore and profits and share prices will rise again too. So unless FMG management are hiding something I don't expect they have to be worried about the share price much (a big fall in iron ore price yes - but not a fall in the share price).

To expect very quick movements in FMG's share price back to multiples (2x, 3x etc) of what it is now is unrealistic in my opinion. I think three times current (3x 1.8o's) in three years is not unreasonable though it may be slightly optimistic.

I read a book called "The Super Analysts" (written in 2000), in which a allegedly highly skilled analyst (in mining) was being interviewed on his approach. He said "the mining cycle is about a six-year wavelength. Five to six years amplitude from peak to trough, and the cycle is about 200% to 300%".