They shot up last time because they shocked the market with forecast cost reductions. Previously talk was of $25-26 C1 cost then out of no where came the $18 figure. Hence the market loved it. Given $18/ton is close to BHP/RIO I can't see them shocking the market again.
If you look closely at some of those forecast numbers they look very ambitious, so there is a potential for disappointment in fact.
As an example shipping cost for last half was $694m. They are forecasting $5/ton now, or $800m p.a. (160mtpa). So basically $700m for one half becomes $800m for the year. I know oil prices have come down, but still seems like a huge reduction. If you look at petrol prices they haven't come down anywhere near that much.
Cheers
Iron Ore Price, page-529
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