FMG 1.20% $21.41 fortescue ltd

I can't say your wrong - because the market says your right....

  1. 305 Posts.
    I can't say your wrong - because the market says your right. What I can't come to terms with is the cynicism that the market has in relation to the stock. Yesterday we had a 6% loss on the stock after an outstanding report that the market didn't think that it could deliver. Instead of it being embraced the "smoking gun" for the stock to be sold off is that they're high grading their ore. Really? Are they? The report suggests otherwise in black and white, but we can't take that at face value and have to read between the lines to get the truth. Really? again the cynicism is unbelievable. Why aren't people reading in between lines with rio and bhp to see if they're doing the same thing???

    Their debt load is 10% of their delivered cost @$4 out of the $39. Is that really too much? You look at the balance sheet of any viable business that owns its own infrastructure and you wouldn't blink twice at a number like that. But again the market is cynical about that too. So what if its not cleared in 5 years. Who wouldn't let them refinance the debt and run again???

    Whats to say that FMG can't get its costs down to the same as bhp or rio? Why is everybody so vigilant that this couldn't in their wiliest dreams be possible. FMG now has the infrastructure, the run rate and the established business market to sell to. Why do people think its impossible to sell at the same break-even price of the others??

    I know the other thing people go on about is the low grade ore. Everybody conveniently seems to overlook that all of the 165mt FMG produces is theirs and that bhp and rio each only own between 80 - 85% of the ore they mine - effectively more than the discount that fmg receives for the lower grade ore.

    If the cynicism has some facts to back it up, i could probably deal with it an move on - but it never, ever seems too.
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