I came to exactly the same conclusion as you. The "experts" were predicting major falls in IO when it was close to its lowest low since the commodities boom. Then they kept re-publishing the same old forecast month after month as the price bottomed then began to rise. It became clear that they could not admit they were wrong, when a small child could see they were.. So I bought into AGO.
Now it has doubled when they said it would halve. I could understand predicting a 10% fall and then it stays flat (for example) as this would be an acceptable error, but not the doubling after a prediction of halving. People who are investing our super rely on these forecasts.
This is terrifying monumental incompetence, yet nobody is ever sacked!
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