Given FMG is the smallest of the three shutting shop, the supply disruption would be large enough to give the FE price another nudge up.
Rio ship about 0.9mt per day, BHP 0.75mt per day and FMG 0.45mt per day.
If the ports are closed for 3 days (could be longer as the ore won’t be instantly magically shipped away the moment it is decided the danger has passed) and assuming no infrastructure damage, there may be a short term supply deficiency of 6.3mt
There’s also Roy Hill as well which may push this up to 6.6mt
Some would go to non China markets but you would still expect the short term shortfall to China to be 5 to 6 mil tonnes.
Iron ore price, page-11136
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