You can have your opinions but numbers don't lie, let's look at...

You can have your opinions but numbers don't lie, let's look at IO inventory.

2019 Week 13 IO Inventory Report (27/3/2019):

Northern 6 Major Ports(Qingdao, Tianjin, Caofeidian, Lianyungang, Rizhao, Jingtang) IO Inventory totaled 81.4656MT, down 1.9624MT from last week, down 18.1228MT from same time last year:

FMG IO Inventory at Northern 6 Ports:
- Blend Fines 58.3%: 3.7231MT, up 0.3808MT from last week
- SSF 56.7%: 7.9706MT, down 0.2514MT from last week
- Rocket (West) Fines: 0.1847MT, down 0.0725MT from last week
- Others: 0.8476MT, down 0.0884MT from last week
Total FMG IO Inventory 12.726MT, down 0.0315MT from last week

FMG IO Inventory accounts for 15.62% of total IO at Northern 6 Ports, last week was 15.29%.

Let's take a look at historical prices to work out the trend:
- Week 1, % of IO at Norton 6 Ports: FMG 27.82%; BHP 11.40%; RIO 12.04%; Vale/CSN 30.05%
- Week 2, % of IO at Norton 6 Ports: FMG 27.65%; BHP 11.05%; RIO 12.19%; Vale/CSN 30.11%
- Week 3, % of IO at Norton 6 Ports: FMG 25.83%; BHP 11.94%; RIO 13.61%; Vale/CSN 29.67%
- Week 4, % of IO at Norton 6 Ports: FMG 24.89%; BHP 11.45%; RIO 14.12%; Vale/CSN 31.26%
- Week 5, % of IO at Norton 6 Ports: FMG 23.63%; BHP 11.31%; RIO 14.49%; Vale/CSN 31.97%
- Week 6, % of IO at Norton 6 Ports: FMG 22.31%; BHP 11.54%; RIO 15.32%; Vale/CSN 31.75%.
- Week 7, % of IO at Norton 6 Ports: FMG 20.23%; BHP 11.73%; RIO 13.20%; Vale/CSN 34.11%.
- Week 8, % of IO at Norton 6 Ports: FMG 18.81%; BHP 12.61%; RIO 13.28%; Vale/CSN 34.57%.
- Week 9, % of IO at Norton 6 Ports: FMG 17.77%; BHP 12.89%; RIO 13.34%; Vale/CSN 35.29%.
- Week 10, % of IO at Norton 6 Ports: FMG 16.86%; BHP 12.74%; RIO 13.81%; Vale/CSN 36.10%.
- Week 11, % of IO at Norton 6 Ports: FMG 16.52%; BHP 12.90%; RIO 12.80%; Vale/CSN 36.07%.
- Week 12, % of IO at Norton 6 Ports: FMG 15.29%; BHP 13.91%; RIO 12.82%; Vale/CSN 36.39%.
- Week 13, % of IO at Norton 6 Ports: FMG 15.62%; BHP 13.89%; RIO 12.92%; Vale/CSN 35.96%.

As you can see FMG has gone from 27.82% of total IO inventory at beginning of the year to just 15.62% yesterday. In Volume terms, week 1 was 21.4351MT, yesterday was 12.726MT. That is a MASSIVE DROP. This show how popular FMG's IO are ATM.

In contrast, Vale/CSN has gone up from 30.05% to 35.96% at the same time, in Volume terms, week 1 was 23.1597MT, yesterday was 29.2984MT. High grade IO is NOT as popular now, Therefore the FACT that Vale is shipping less IO doesn't really effect IO inventory.

A lot people talk about FMG's SP performance is all due to Vale's incident, they really have no idea. Sorry, not a lot of people, just a few.

DYOR
Frank