You can have your opinions but numbers don't lie, let's look at
IO inventory.
2019 Week 13 IO Inventory Report (27/3/2019):
Northern 6 Major Ports(Qingdao, Tianjin, Caofeidian, Lianyungang, Rizhao, Jingtang)
IO Inventory totaled 81.4656MT, down 1.9624MT from last week, down 18.1228MT from same time last year:
FMG IO Inventory at Northern 6 Ports:
- Blend Fines 58.3%: 3.7231MT, up 0.3808MT from last week
- SSF 56.7%: 7.9706MT, down 0.2514MT from last week
- Rocket (West) Fines: 0.1847MT, down 0.0725MT from last week
- Others: 0.8476MT, down 0.0884MT from last week
Total FMG IO Inventory 12.726MT, down 0.0315MT from last week
FMG IO Inventory accounts for 15.62% of total IO at Northern 6 Ports, last week was 15.29%.
Let's take a look at historical prices to work out the trend:
- Week 1, % of IO at Norton 6 Ports: FMG 27.82%; BHP 11.40%; RIO 12.04%; Vale/CSN 30.05%
- Week 2, % of IO at Norton 6 Ports: FMG 27.65%; BHP 11.05%; RIO 12.19%; Vale/CSN 30.11%
- Week 3, % of IO at Norton 6 Ports: FMG 25.83%; BHP 11.94%; RIO 13.61%; Vale/CSN 29.67%
- Week 4, % of IO at Norton 6 Ports: FMG 24.89%; BHP 11.45%; RIO 14.12%; Vale/CSN 31.26%
- Week 5, % of IO at Norton 6 Ports: FMG 23.63%; BHP 11.31%; RIO 14.49%; Vale/CSN 31.97%
- Week 6, % of IO at Norton 6 Ports: FMG 22.31%; BHP 11.54%; RIO 15.32%; Vale/CSN 31.75%.
- Week 7, % of IO at Norton 6 Ports: FMG 20.23%; BHP 11.73%; RIO 13.20%; Vale/CSN 34.11%.
- Week 8, % of IO at Norton 6 Ports: FMG 18.81%; BHP 12.61%; RIO 13.28%; Vale/CSN 34.57%.
- Week 9, % of IO at Norton 6 Ports: FMG 17.77%; BHP 12.89%; RIO 13.34%; Vale/CSN 35.29%.
- Week 10, % of IO at Norton 6 Ports: FMG 16.86%; BHP 12.74%; RIO 13.81%; Vale/CSN 36.10%.
- Week 11, % of IO at Norton 6 Ports: FMG 16.52%; BHP 12.90%; RIO 12.80%; Vale/CSN 36.07%.
- Week 12, % of IO at Norton 6 Ports: FMG 15.29%; BHP 13.91%; RIO 12.82%; Vale/CSN 36.39%.
- Week 13, % of IO at Norton 6 Ports: FMG 15.62%; BHP 13.89%; RIO 12.92%; Vale/CSN 35.96%.
As you can see FMG has gone from 27.82% of total IO inventory at beginning of the year to just 15.62% yesterday. In Volume terms, week 1 was 21.4351MT, yesterday was 12.726MT. That is a MASSIVE DROP. This show how popular FMG's IO are ATM.
In contrast, Vale/CSN has gone up from 30.05% to 35.96% at the same time, in Volume terms, week 1 was 23.1597MT, yesterday was 29.2984MT. High grade IO is NOT as popular now,
Therefore the FACT that Vale is shipping less IO doesn't really effect IO inventory.
A lot people talk about FMG's SP performance is all due to Vale's incident, they really have no idea. Sorry, not a lot of people, just a few.
DYOR
Frank
(20min delay)