Hi BigE, Hope you are doing well and on the mend. Interesting...

Hi BigE,

Hope you are doing well and on the mend.

Interesting extract of Cliff CEO speech posted on HC (sorry I got forgot who) but I read through the whole speech and he was very buoyant about the FE price for some quite time yet.

The part I’ve pasted further below I definitely agree with.

The reduction of port stocks by another 3% released late Fri arvo is only just the beginning. March FE exports from Brazil were the lowest in years and the first three weeks in April were even more deplorable than the March numbers.

Steel inventory has fallen another 6% week on week.

The next 6-7 weeks are going to show port stocks being depleted like we’ve never seen before. SSF were already depleted considerably at ports which had helped the discount tightening. There will be further tightening pressure over the next couple of months in my opinion.

Brutchu will take some time to have any meaningful impact and as a site or two in Brazil has questioned is if it is able to get back to full production.

The coue mine in Itabara is under pressure at the moment but still producing. Announced a couple of days back that all dams in that complex are being audited.

https://www.defatoonline.com.br/ass...ividades-de-barragens-ligadas-a-mina-do-caue/

“Several people directly or indirectly involved with the industry initially believed that the lost production in Brazil would not be meaningful and would be easily replaced or brought back online. That did not happen and will not happen. In fact, the annualized shortfall of iron ore from Brazil has been accounted for as tens of millions of metric tons. Furthermore, as tailings dams become object of heated discussion by mainstream media, governments and courts of law become much more serious about investigating the root causes and punishing the perpetrators. The distraction of multiple, very costly and very serious lawsuits in closing criminal liability related to the loss of life of hundreds of Brazilian citizens should only continue to confirm, throughout this year and next, that Brazil, as a supplier of iron ore to the world, has become a totally unreliable supplier.

There is no short or medium-term solution for these massive shortages. And as such, iron ore and pellet prices should remain elevated for the foreseeable future. That will not get better or easier anytime soon, and it might get worse. Welcome to the New Normal. Get used to the New Normal.

With the Córrego do Feijão catastrophe at Vale in Brazil exactly 90 days ago, and considering vessels in transit from Brazil to China and port inventories at both ends, we are just now at a point where the physical impact is starting to be felt in China and throughout the world.”