I was just reading Goldman Sachs research on my Commsec account.
They have a buy recommendation on FMG & Rio (not BHP) and FMG target price of $9.80 (research release date 13 August 2019).
"Upgrading iron ore, Buy RIO and FMG: We think iron ore will rebound to US$110-115/t in 4Q post Chinese Golden week and recommend investors buy RIO and FMG post the recent share price weakness."
"We increase our FMG NAV to A$7.73/sh and TP to A$9.8/sh (set at 50:50 NAV:3.5x EBITDA NTM) and upgrade to Buy on valuation (0.9x NAV) and an attractive FCF yield of 13% in FY20 despite higher capex and cash tax."
They have following graph re forward estimates and earnings per share.
I am interested by the EPS on right of graph. If EPS plays out as predicted, then consider the following simple analysis.
You buy FMG share today for $7.50 - your payback in year 1 is $1.50 (whether in dividends or profit retention which improves the balance sheet). Therefore after year 1, your cost of FMG share has effectively been reduced to $6. In year 2, EPS is predicted at 70 cents per share and on your "reduced" $6 cost base, the stock is now trading on PE ratio of 8.57 ($6 divided by 70 cents), even in a more normal IO pricing year (if we consider 2020 as an abnormal year).
Therefore, my conclusion based on fundamentals, you can't go wrong buying FMG at current price of $7.50. Remember, Goldman Sachs has net asset values at $7.73.
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$19.76 |
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Mkt cap ! $60.84B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$19.66 | $19.80 | $19.20 | $191.1M | 9.763M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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3 | 4673 | $19.73 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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$19.76 | 31740 | 2 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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1 | 1000 | 19.730 |
1 | 1000 | 19.700 |
1 | 3000 | 19.680 |
2 | 1552 | 19.650 |
1 | 5000 | 19.630 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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19.800 | 2133 | 2 |
19.830 | 750 | 2 |
19.850 | 150 | 1 |
19.870 | 2200 | 2 |
19.880 | 3834 | 3 |
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