There seems to be quite a few releases lately of provinces restricting outpost due to environmental concerns but do they really have much affect on IO usage?
For example, this was released yesterday:
https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/amp...ties-curb-production-improve-air-quality-week
“According to a document dated Saturday and authenticated by two industry sources, the city of Tangshan, which produces nearly 100 million tonnes of steel a year, ordered some steel mills to cut sintering output by no less than 50 per cent from Sunday until the end of Friday and impose stricter emissions curbs over that period.”
100mt per year is 8.33mt per month. 5 days is 1.65mt. 50% restriction is 0.82mt. If some mills are affected, it may mean 0.5mt of steel (about 0.8mt of IO)
Steel output in mid Sep actually increased by 0.9% from the first 10 days. Steel output appears to be on track for another big month. First 10 days were 1.4% up on final 10 days of August...
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/iron-ore-price.3290357/page-16073?post_id=40389788#.XYoKyiR_XDs
https://www.mysteel.net/article/501...d-Sept-daily-crude-steel-output-gains-09.html
Also, it appears that those who need to adhere to the regulations have already done so according to the below. Also, although freight trucks are restricted from certain ports according to another release tonight (mysteel), rail transport is still being used according to the below release tonight.
Overall, all these restriction releases are white noise. Output is continuing to increase and supply is stagnating at a low base. That’s the bottom line.
Cheers
http://static-metal.smm.cn/production/subscribe/email/MYddd20190924183419.pdf
“According to SMM, mills who have been required to cut production have strictly adhered to the regulations. Total concluded transactions were weak and it was heard that some mills purchased rail transport due to the closure of some ports. Iron ore port stock prices are expected be vulnerable prior the upcoming holiday. SMM estimates that 68 vessels carrying 11.26 million mt of iron ore arrived at major Chinese ports during September 15-21, down 2.67 million mt from the week ended September 14. Last week, iron ore deliveries leaving Australian ports down 1.15 million mt from the prior week to 13.18 million mt. Shipments that departed Brazilian ports were estimated to increase by 670,000 mt on the week to 6.76 mil”
(20min delay)