Moving tonight’s post re: production curbs from shipments thread...

Moving tonight’s post re: production curbs from shipments thread to main IO thread..

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Even with snap restrictions being imposed on a regular basis in Tangshan, I don’t believe downstream demand is going to just pull back the reins in line with Tangshan.

Tangshan produce about 11% of China’s steel. You’d probably find that capacity utilisation will become higher in the South to compensate for lower in Tangshan. Steel inventories being as low as they are (yesterday’s article that I posted showed steel inventories at a 9 month low, posted again below) is sufficient enough evidence that even though production has come off a bit in the last month, steel inventories are being drawn down at a pretty rapid rate to meet downstream demand.

Steel inventories are at a 9 month low and have dropped from 12.8mt to 9.4mt at the surveyed mills in 3 months (just over 25% drop)

At one point I’ll try to chart IO at mills, steel stocks, port stocks, output levels and shipments to China in the one chart as looking at these important 5 variables as a whole give a reasonable indication of how the market is faring and likely to fare in the near term. Maybe a project for another time

Cheers


https://www.mysteel.net/article/501...-steel-stocks-dip-again-on-steady-demand.html

https://www.mysteel.net/article/5009198/WEEKLY--Chinas-steel-stocks-up-for-8th-straight-week.html