Interesting Freddy! Further below is what PB @PilbaraBoy and I...

Interesting Freddy!

Further below is what PB @PilbaraBoy and I were discussing last week and relevant to here.

Sep qtr bhp produces 61mt from 128.3mt= 47.6%
128.3mt is from Port Hedland

Dec qtr bhp produces 60.3mt from 132.6mt = 45.4%

One company perhaps more is taking up a bigger slice of pie at PH for the Dec Qtr. Granted production doesn’t equal sales as Bhp only report output in their quarterlies. However, I can’t see mineral resources or Atlas taking up 2% points more at PH... Gina might be taking up a bit more but you would think FMG have had an outstanding quarterly operationally. I think this is being reaffirmed more so now

Even if FMG take up 1% point more of the 132.8mt port Hedland expirts for the quarter, you could see fmg reporting sales somewhere in the mid to upper band of their 170-175mt fy target. (Might be around 86.5mt-87mt for half year)

Let’s see. I’m bit more confident now

Cheers

From last week:

What makes it a bit difficult to calculate is that BHP report output rather than sales in their quarterlies. Also, when looking at the Dec18 qtr for guidance, the figures were a bit thrown off by the BHP train derailment.

Anyway, I simply looked at total FMG shipments during Sep19 qtr and divided by total PH shipments during Sep qtr released by Pilbara Ports Authority. This gave me a 32.8%. (42.2mt / 128.3mt)

For the Dec19 Qtr, PH shipped 132.6mt

If we apply 32.8% to 132.6mt, this gives estimated FMG shipments of 43.5mt

Total est shipments for HY would be 85.7mt