After a busy week at work, I finally have time to sit down and...

After a busy week at work, I finally have time to sit down and go through what happened this week, what a week for FMG, up 12% from last Friday.

Numbers from last night:
- TSI 62% US$62.60/dmt down US$0.30
- Platts 62% US$63.00/dmt down US$1.30
-Umetal IO Port Inventory 30/6: 141.99MT down 0.26MT from last week
- Mysteel IO Port Inventory 29/6: 144.13MT down 1.26MT from last week
- Tangshan Billet 3290 yuan down 50 yuan yesterday (Thursday was 12 month record 3340 yuan)
- Tangshan Billet 3310 yuan up 20 yuan this morning
- As oil gets cheaper, so is shipping to China, as of 30/6, shipping cost is US$5.079/T down US$0.225/T

Vale don't blend with Chinese IO at Vale's blend facility, they blend their OWN IOs, Malaysian blend facility produce BRBF Fines, Chinese Mills then use 5% to 30% of "blended" Vale IO with other
Australian and Chinese IOs to get their desired blend.

Cash Flow / Earnings improved with increased IO prices. This week:
- FMG average realised price increased from US$39.815 on 22/6 to US$44.94 on 29/6 or increase of 12.87%
- 62% Benchmark had increase 12.6% at the same time.
- Discount went from 29.8% to 29.67%, so roughly the same still.
- Cash flow improved from US$165M/month to US$231M/month or US$66M/month
That is the REASON why SP is up 12% this week.

Time to load up FMG in "dips",  close those shorts and stop whinge when SP runs to $7 again. So buying under $5 to $4.5s still a bad idea now?? Yeah, only if you short under $5.

DYOR.

Frank.