Hi,
I'm trying to determine the risk of buying in to FMG now. It is a world-leaking company with a bright future, however I feel the share price is perhaps still higher than anticipated earnings over the near term, particularly with some experts predicting a prolonged depression to follow the epidemic. I'd appreciate those with specific knowledge of FMG operations to advise...
I assume this stock has gone against market sentiment in anticipation of China restarting manufacturing and perhaps interruptions to Vale's production. Given that the about-to-begin epidemic will last at least 4 months in Western Australia (SIR modelling with R0 of <2.5; 6-9 months if isolation measures are effective):
Is there a historical comparison for change in iron ore price for a similar period of reduced demand (I'm guessing GFC)? The EU and USA are entering a period of massive disruption to workforces and manufacturing because of the virus and one would expect steel demand to fall.
What could the iron ore price go to and what effect would that have on FMG share price?
Is there the international demand for China to manufacture more steel than required to keep the smelters hot?
And when the WA state government restricts gatherings to 5 people or less, or requires all businesses to close (probably 4 weeks from now given another 10 cases announced today), will FMG be able to continue production? How automated are they at the mine site? Perhaps the government will allow an exemption for primary production but will the unions?
Finally, what will the effect of the depression that follows the epidemic have on iron ore price? Particularly with the destruction of wealth we have seen in the last couple of weeks.
Thanks for the alpha, in anticipation.
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