we may have hit the peak, however it is possible that an early artificial peak was caused by the cruise ships and other arrivals, and the local organic spread of the virus is still growing from a smaller base that hasn’t peaked yet.
If the local transmission rate hasn’t peaked yet and continues to grow exponentially from its low current base, we could see it spike over what looks like the current peak caused by the arrivals.
but I hope that is not true and we have indeed peaked, Italy looks to have peaked or at least hit a plateau, so that gives hope that once you take lock downs seriously a few fees later you can see cases peaking.
new cases will normally continue to rise for atleast 2 weeks after lockdowns due to the incubation period.
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