Brazil’s worsening Covid-19 crisis is making waves in the commodities world with reduced iron ore shipments from the South American country lifting the price of the steel-making material by 30% to almost $100 a ton.

There could be more to come with some analysts forecasting a return to last year’s peak price of $125/t, an unexpected rise also caused by events in Brazil.

Tour of Fortescue Mining Group's Solomon Hub, Port Hedland Rail and Herb Elliott Port

Bulk carriers loading iron ore at Port Hedland in Australia which is benefiting from a worsening ... [+] BLOOMBERG NEWS

Other iron ore exporters, especially Australia, are the winners from Brazil’s latest setback while China is bearing the brunt of the increase.

Last year’s price-driving event in Brazil was the death of 270 people after a dam designed to hold back mine waste collapsed, forcing the closure of a several mines and a sharp fall in exports.

Covid-19 Hits Brazil’s Mineral Exports

This year’s setback is Covid-19 and its potential to cripple Brazilian mine and port operations.

Adding to market pressure, which has already seen the benchmark ore price rise from around $75/t to latest trades at $98/t, is strong demand for steel in China as it stimulates economic growth after its Covid-19 lockdown.

Brazil, unlike many other countries, has not uniformly enforced a lockdown with the result being rapid and widespread increase in Covid-19 infection rates which earlier this week saw the U.S. ban flights from Brazil.