Firstly, we can look at 'ASX fair value PE multiples' all we want - but the unfortunate reality with FMG is that it trades at a significant discount (30-50%) on a P/E basis to what others (i.e. banks etc) do. I think somewhere around 8-10 is a 'dream' scenario and around 6 is more normal (not arguing if that is right or wrong, just where it is for now!)
My rough (really rough) calculations on earnings then P/E for the first half were $2.5b US earnings, I'm going to call it $3.57b AUD (70c conversion rate). That's approximately $1.13 per share.
Lets say we double that (the dollar is better, IO price is better and they are shipping more ore - so doubling is VERY conservative IMO) - that gives us earnings of $2.26 per share, at a share price of $14.65 (what shade of green is it today Rurenga??) - P/E is a smidge under 6.5.
Someone smarter than me will work out forward looking estimates etc - but I'm happy with a P/E of 6.5 and yield (ex franking credits) of over 10% (can't see how they don't pay out at least 76c again for the 2H results - making it $1.52 for the full year).
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$20.14 |
Change
0.180(0.90%) |
Mkt cap ! $62.01B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$20.11 | $20.40 | $19.80 | $203.8M | 10.11M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 10 | $20.13 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$20.14 | 17291 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
2 | 1545 | 24.160 |
1 | 110 | 22.000 |
1 | 3000 | 21.500 |
1 | 2323 | 21.190 |
1 | 33 | 21.150 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
19.140 | 2519 | 4 |
19.460 | 21837 | 1 |
19.650 | 289 | 3 |
19.730 | 183 | 1 |
19.970 | 3193 | 4 |
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