Firstly, we can look at 'ASX fair value PE multiples' all we want - but the unfortunate reality with FMG is that it trades at a significant discount (30-50%) on a P/E basis to what others (i.e. banks etc) do. I think somewhere around 8-10 is a 'dream' scenario and around 6 is more normal (not arguing if that is right or wrong, just where it is for now!)
My rough (really rough) calculations on earnings then P/E for the first half were $2.5b US earnings, I'm going to call it $3.57b AUD (70c conversion rate). That's approximately $1.13 per share.
Lets say we double that (the dollar is better, IO price is better and they are shipping more ore - so doubling is VERY conservative IMO) - that gives us earnings of $2.26 per share, at a share price of $14.65 (what shade of green is it today Rurenga??) - P/E is a smidge under 6.5.
Someone smarter than me will work out forward looking estimates etc - but I'm happy with a P/E of 6.5 and yield (ex franking credits) of over 10% (can't see how they don't pay out at least 76c again for the 2H results - making it $1.52 for the full year).
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Last
$21.92 |
Change
0.350(1.62%) |
Mkt cap ! $67.49B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$21.60 | $21.95 | $21.54 | $94.22M | 4.315M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 1000 | $21.91 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$21.93 | 18370 | 7 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
2 | 2796 | 21.900 |
3 | 1560 | 21.890 |
4 | 21941 | 21.880 |
3 | 26259 | 21.870 |
4 | 26276 | 21.860 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
21.930 | 11100 | 5 |
21.940 | 3030 | 3 |
21.950 | 7667 | 5 |
21.960 | 3333 | 1 |
21.970 | 6000 | 2 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 03/07/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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