In terms of the upcoming updates, I think we will see very similar figures to 1H. Realised price should be $80 for 2H. Things I'm looking include higher shipping volumes; higher USD/AUD price; and higher capex. Mind you, capex will be only roughly $400 mil higher that H1 so that's not particularly significant. Free cashflow will remain robust.
All things considered, the company is in extremely good shape. It would be difficult to see FMG payout less that 75%. I'm taking a guess and hoping for 87 cents.
Reflecting on FMG's recent SP strength, it's difficult to find a more reliable company with comparable free cashflow. But the time is coming where FMG should consider adding an additional commodity to its portfolio. Work is underway on this, but I'll be interested to see an update on what the company has taken away from recent China tensions. Not for a second do I believe China can immediately cease its reliance on AUS iron ore. Instead, they will seek to do this over the longer term, probably via acquisitions and developments in Africa. . .
DYOR
Baron
Iron ore price, page-22471
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$17.94 |
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-0.350(1.91%) |
Mkt cap ! $55.23B | |||
| Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
| $18.20 | $18.24 | $17.92 | $112.0M | 6.210M |
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| No. | Vol. | Price($) |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | 440 | $17.93 |
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| Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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