Long (or sadly even medium) term, I don’t think $120 is sustainable at all.
I get the argument that nations are going to want to stimulate their respective economies via infrastructure does hold merit, but the problem I’m seeing is will they have enough in their coffers to ramp up meaningfully enough to make a significant impact on IOP once they hit post Covid?
My point is, how long is it going to take to even get to a point of ‘post Covid? It could take years. If that happens, there might not be enough flexibility left to go hard on infrastructure..
It’s anyone’s guess.
However I do see there being a decent chance of being able to potentially hold around the $100 mark, which is still significant. Though my conservative mind is saying the safest bet should be at the $80-$90 range - still not to be sneezed at.
Things could change - I hope they do, but we can’t rely on that outcome.
Still a hold for me!
Shaggy
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