I wouldn't mind someone sharing some views on why this isn't...

I wouldn't mind someone sharing some views on why this isn't $30-40 other than the reasons above.

Perhaps the question should be ..." does it matter whether the stock price is $30 - $40...??" - no doubt FMG, if it maintains current trends, will be $30 or so this year and possibly $50 or so in 4 or 5 years... but, you need to ask yourself what the yield will be at those prices. If prices go up and yield slides are you better off ? Are you looking for capital gain or a constant high return ?
Your thoughts re short sellers are interesting. In my opinion short sellers don't care about the price or value of a stock They simply take advantage of technical signals, sentiment and events and would sell into those factors whether the stock was $20 or $40.