@baukaw, I'm happily short still here as in the longer term I...

@baukaw,

I'm happily short still here as in the longer term I expect the iron ore price to be significantly lower with the increasing low cost supply, and margins are still very high compared to history.

In the short term FMG margin competitiveness has slipped markedly as the discount blow-out is still in play, plus we are now seeing higher premiums for lump.

So again, if you like iron ore, it is a no-brainer to buy Rio (even more so with the lump premium support). Perhaps cover downside by pairing with FMG.

I don't see any catalysts for FMG to the upside
- cost base has been gutted already
- significant replacement capex for Firetail
- paying down debt now that the company is out of financial distress clearly doesn't lead to the equity being re-rated

So you'd need to be very bullish iron ore price. Which again leads you back to Rio as the much better play.