Re-rating ahead for BHP, RIO, FMG?“Most of the big research...

Re-rating ahead for BHP, RIO, FMG?

“Most of the big research houses are still using an estimate of closer to $US100-120 a tonne for 2021 in their valuations for the big iron ore miners, and closer to $80 for 2022,” ThinkMarkets’ Carl Capolingua said.

“I keep reading research notes that say iron ore prices are going to come down,” Mr Capolingua also said. “There’s clearly a disconnect between what the experts are saying and what the market is doing right now. So, something’s got to give.

“Most of our big miners like BHP Group, Rio Tinto, and Fortescue Metals Group are trading on really low earnings multiples for FY21 and FY22. We’re talking single digits. It’s because the big research houses are factoring iron ore prices falling back down again.

“There’s all this talk about Brazilian supply coming back online and demand from steelmakers coming off,” Mr Capolingua said. “But as we get further and further down the post-COVID track, neither of those things appear to be occurring.

“And the longer they don’t, the more likely were going to see upgrades to those iron ore price estimates. That’s going to facilitate higher valuations on the iron ore miners.“