I think China will respond after Labor's budget reply as...

I think China will respond after Labor's budget reply as whatever message sent is intended for both parties. Early election in November is almost guaranteed.

Had I said 2 days ago that Canberra makes worst case assumption that IOP could tumble to $55 by May 2022, I would have been ridiculed. Fact is, Frydenberg knows something ominous is on the horizon (some would argue it's self inflicted).

Problem is Frydenberg hasn't factored $55 at 350MTA less volume in his worst case scenario. Even if IO export volume doesn't take a massive hit, there is no way he can deliver his budget programme without taking on even more debt that would crash the AUD.

The big question is has China stockpiled so much from the seaborne market and from domestic production (presumably for many months) that they will plunge IO import (not entirely but close).

BTW, it looks like wheat is the next on the chopping board.