Chinese move to cool iron ore may be no bad thingChinese steel mills expect their government to try to slow surging steel demand. But that might give Australian iron ore miners a rare chance to diversify.
May 24, 2021 – 12.00am
Steel makers in China have told Australia’s iron ore giants they expect the Chinese government will attempt to put the brakes on booming steel production in the second half of calendar 2021, mainly to cut the
steel sector’s carbon emissions.But rather than fearing such an intervention at a time of heightened trade tensions between Australia and China, local miners may be able to use it to their advantage. Demand from steel makers outside China
is so strong that any slowdown in the Chinese market will give Australian miners a rare opportunity to broaden their customer base.
China may look to cool its steel sector in the second half of 2021. David Rowe
The price of iron ore fell 5.3 per cent to $US200.72 a tonne on Friday, ending a week in which
Chinese officials signalled their frustration with high ore prices, which have more than doubled in the past 12 months.
While China has a
long-term, if somewhat vague, plan to reduce its reliance on Australian ore over the next 15 years, sources inside Australia’s iron ore giants say none of the government’s current frustration is being directed at Australian producers.
Instead, there is recognition the Australian miners are working as hard as possible to get as much ore as possible into the white-hot market, which is being boosted by a demand surge that started in China about 12 months ago and has expanded to the rest of the world amid a post-pandemic economic recovery.
Such has been the level of demand in recent weeks, Chinese steel mills that were only breaking even in January have seen profit margins explode. As a result, these steel producers are running as hard as they can;
the utilisation rate of blast furnaces inside China’s steel sector is running above 90 per cent, while electric arc furnaces considered uneconomic just 12 months ago are now running full tilt.
Not only have mills been trying to get as much ore as they can lay their hands on, they have been prepared to pay for Australia’s better quality product; better ore allows mills to run more efficiently and increase their output further.
The sudden surge in demand in reopening economies is so strong that steel stockpiles have been rapidly depleted.
While a level of speculation has crept into iron ore spot markets in recent weeks, sources inside the big iron ore miners insist it has been limited. Demand is real and very strong – particularly from the Chinese housing sector – and miners say there are no signs that traders are hoarding ore to get leverage to push prices around.
The best proof of the underlying demand is the strength in the port-side iron ore market in China, which exists to help steel mills get their hands on ore quickly. Sources say prices in the port-side market were $US25 higher than in the seaborne market a few weeks ago, indicating the desperation of mills to get their hands on ore quickly; even now, the port-side market is $US10 a tonne ahead of the seaborne market.
China’s steel mills have had two good reasons to go hell for leather.
The first is the recognition that theirs is a cyclical game and the good times won’t last forever. Indeed, there are signs that margins have retreated in the last week, with Commonwealth Bank analysts reporting on Friday that margins for some steel products
have fallen 60 per cent from abnormally high levels in the middle of May.But sources inside the Australian miners also suggest Chinese steel mills are saying they expect their government will try to slow the level of steel production in the second half of the year.
Partly this is about cooling prices;
China’s National Development and Reform Commission said last week it wanted prices to fall and said it would encourage more production from China’s domestic iron ore mines, although this ore is notoriously expensive to produce.
But it is also important to remember that the Chinese government started the year with a plan to drive steel production lower in 2021 to reduce pollution from the sector, which is estimated to account for about 15 per cent of the nation’s total emissions.
As recently as March, the city of
Tangshan cut the blast furnace capacity across its steel-making sector by 30 per cent to reduce emissions, and there was broad speculation that Chinese officials would look to roll out similar cuts across other cities.
But the Chinese government’s plan hasn’t worked. Such has been the level of the demand inside China and across the globe that international and Chinese steel margins have risen, encouraging China’s steel mills to go harder than ever.
Research house Capital Economics estimates that Chinese steel production rose by 7.5 per cent in April compared with March and while Capital Economics believes April’s production level may prove to be the peak, Australia’s miners have seen strong activity continue into May.
But the iron ore miners are very much alive to the warnings from their Chinese customers that the government will step in, in a way that cools steel prices and gets its broader plan to cut steel-sector emissions back on track.
This won’t be easy to do – ironically the production cuts in Tangshan cut supply and pushed up Chinese domestic steel margins through March, April and May – but UBS analysts last week speculated steel export bans might be part of the plan.
These would increase the supply of steel to China’s domestic market, pushing down steel margins and eventually demand for ore and prices – although the announcement of previous curbs on steel exports have resulted in Chinese steel mills ramping up production before the restrictions come into force.
No panic stations yetUsually, the suggestion of Chinese intervention in the steel market would have Australia’s miners worried. But the level of demand across the rest of the world is so strong that they see no need to panic.
“If China cuts steel production someone else will do it,” a source inside one of Australia’s big miners says.
Surging steel prices are pushing up prices around the world and producers outside of China are scrambling to keep pace.
Earlier this month, European steel giant ArcelorMittal lifted its steel prices for the 12th time since November, taking a tonne of hot rolled coil in Europe to €1050 – up by more than 80 per cent over the past seven months.
Nucor, the biggest steel maker in the United States, is the best-performing stock in the S&P 500 year-to-date, as US producers struggle to find workers after shrinking their operations for the past four decades.
Even steel producers in COVID-19-ravaged India are going flat out to increase exports, which rose about 26 per cent in the March quarter, according to S&P Global Platts.
Part of the problem is that there is little buffer in the system; the sudden surge in demand in reopening economies is so strong that steel stockpiles have been rapidly depleted. Even as this demand surge fades, restocking is likely to keep steel markets tight, providing support for iron ore prices.
And beyond that, as BHP chief Mike Henry pointed out at Bank of America’s annual global mining conference last week, investment in the infrastructure required to drive decarbonisation will help underpin steel demand over the coming decade.
But some inside our big miners believe that meeting the strong levels of demand seen beyond China right now gives Australia a rare chance to diversify its customer base in a way that seemed unlikely 12 months ago.
This diversification has already been forced on to Australian producers of the other key ingredient in steel, metallurgical coal, who were hit by China’s unofficial ban on Australian coal imports last October.
Indeed, should China pump the brakes on its steel sector, the fact Australian metallurgical coal is already going into markets outside China could help smooth the path for the iron ore miners to increase sales into these markets. Over time, higher iron ore exports to India, Europe and parts of Asia beyond China might then provide a boost for Aussie coal.
China takes about 75 per cent of Australia’s iron ore and it will remain the main game for BHP, Rio Tinto, Fortescue Metals Group and Gina Rinehart’s Roy Hill for decades.
But given China’s long-term desire to reduce its reliance on Australian ore, it makes sense for local miners to have as diverse a customer base as possible. The next 12 months might just provide an opportunity to do that.
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