Iron ore price, page-32321

This excerpt is the end portion of a Reuters column published on 24 May 21, written by Clyde Russell.

Title: China lands uppercut on iron ore prices, but no knockout blow https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/china-lands-uppercut-iron-ore-prices-no-knockout-blow-russell-2021-05-24/

... WORLD DEMAND, SUPPLY ISSUES

The other factors beyond China's control including rising iron ore demand in other importers, and ongoing issues with supply, especially from number two exporter Brazil.

Japan, Asia's second-biggest buyer of iron ore, imported 8.99 million tonnes in April, according to Refinitiv, the highest monthly total since September 2019.

South Korea, the third-biggest importer in Asia, brought in 6.79 million tonnes in April. That was down from 7.32 million a month earlier, but March's total was the highest since October 2015, and even the April outcome was stronger than any month from January 2020 onwards, with the exception of March and November 2020.

Meanwhile Europe's seaborne imports rose to 8.71 million tonnes in April, the highest since October last year, and marking a third consecutive months of gains.

On the supply side, Refinitiv data showed Brazil shipping 25.75 million tonnes in April, down from March's 27.54 million and well below the 34-35 million tonnes per month being achieved in August and September last year.

Top exporter Australia shipped 71.28 million tonnes in April, down from 76.73 in March as a cyclone struck the main producing area in Western Australia state. A recovery is predicted, but the current volumes are still some way below the monthly potential of above 80 million tonnes.

Overall, it's hard to see a sustained decline in the price of seaborne iron ore until several factors start to come together.

Supply will have to return to closer to maximum levels, and China will actually have to reduce steel output. The X-factor is rest of the world demand for iron ore, and so far in 2021 that looks like a solid growth story.