Iron ore falling off a cliff?Hold your horses, say the folks at...

Iron ore falling off a cliff?

Hold your horses, say the folks at Goldman Sachs and head of base metals and bulks research Nicholas Snowdon of“copper is the new oil” fame.

Snowdon told delegates at last week’sSingapore Iron Ore Forum it will not be until 2023when we see more normalisation in the market.

The twin pillars of supply constraints and peaking Chinese steel demand on which iron ore’s wild ride to US$220/t have been based are still standing, Snowdon said.

“It would be wrong to say that the bull market for iron ore, you know, is on the cusp of ending,” Snowdon said.

“When you look forward over the next two, three years, supply growth rates will actually decelerate … from where they stand today.

“There is not an imminent risk of major supply response in the iron ore market and that’s very key to the … outlook for price.”

A bear market traditionally kicks in when prices fall 20% from their peak, which for iron ore was over US$230/t on May 12.

The world’s biggest customer China has made attempts to “jawbone” down prices since then with only fleeting success.

Supply not emerging to put the screws on prices: analyst

Peloton Capital resource analyst Ian Spence has worked in the iron ore and steel industries for decades.

He concurs that the dynamics required for downward price shifts forecast by some analysts as soon as the end of this year are unlikely.

“I’m of the view that I don’t believe it’s going to be sustained where it is,” he said.

“(But) I don’t think they’ll dramatically come off because I don’t see the likes of Vale in Brazil for example immediately ramping up production really fast.

“The likes of Africa, we’re not really seeing a lot of things coming out of Africa in terms of projects getting off the ground.

“I think it’s some way off, so I think the iron price is going to be considerable for the time being.”

On the demand side of the equation, Spence said steel demand was still strong, with growth likely to emerge outside of China as Western economies push ahead with major infrastructure projects.