JHunt, wonderful analysis on how the IO and steel markets might pan out.
If the Chinese produced steel is sold internally (less volume, better price) and less steel is exported because of the rebates now dropped; then yet again, China’s Govt may bite off its nose to spite its face. Loss in export market share for steel during a global recovery driven by need for construction activities would be a huge risk for China.
What does worry me from a sheer safety view point, is the Gov’ts reported decision to use more sub grade Chinese mined IO in its products and reduce the iron content requirements on the dalian to 61%. If that comes to fruition which seems likely, then I hope the steel is used for non-stress bearing, reduced stress loading applications: Not high-rises and transport infrastructure. Noting, as all of us know, lower grade IO for steel equals higher concentration of polluting emissions.
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