Everybody in the mining industry should think more than twice regarding greenfield projects.
Prices can collapse very fast. If prices are down, miners with debt are very very alone.
Everybody just want to have cheap raw materials. They do not care on big investment budgets for greenfield projects.
For the iron ore industry, especially Australian IO miners this means, no growth projects, just replacement.
Debt reduction is a must to have control on your company. Buyback of shares and paying dividends are ok.
Today, iron ore is above 100 Dollar, next year it can be 40 or 400. Analysts know nothing.
For miners in general, not too big projects, please. The Janssen project from BHP is too big.
5,7 billion USD, in operation in 2027. Too much money. What is the price for potassium in 2027?
In short: Mr market tells the miners, your business is shit. Too volatile, too much money needed, too little PE ratios.
So, stay away from growth projects.
Mike
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