also, the evergrande fiasco is playing out slowly. it should be...

also, the evergrande fiasco is playing out slowly. it should be interesting to see if the CCP bails them out or not. it could be a great excuse for the CCP to make this a systemic issue and cause pain for the US investors, a deliberate move perhaps? now if that's the case, that China doesn't bail out Evergrande allowing them to default then the counter party risk is so high that it will spread like wild fire, and very quickly too. if they do bail them out, well it sets the precedent for China going forward and I don't think they want that. whichever happens, I feel the loser is the bond holders and those investors who will need to start covering their positions by selling other assets they have cause the base case at the moment is 75% of bond holders ain't getting their money back. in the short term, this isn't good for the IO price. Evergrande might well be the sacrificial lamb to pop the real estate bubble and be the path towards China wanting to do a global reset on their terms.