Are you suggesting that China will keep building and then we are heading into a commodities super-cycle? Hope you're right.
Metalbulletin cites some 50% cuts in steel production in some steel mills due to power rationing. At the same time car manufactures have suspended production due to chips shortage and coil steel demand is also not what it used to be.
I'm fairly certain that if all 3 agree on production cuts, then IO price will stabilize heading higher and so will the share price plus gross margins. I see IO as an inelastic product so why not squeeze margins rather volume. A 10% IO production cut if yields a better IO price (through supply squeeze) then it bags way more revenue and lowers variable cost than a 30% drop in commodity price at the same volume forecasted, keeping FX rates at constant.
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