I think its a big call to say it is "all" speculative demand. My parents generation (born in the 50's) is a major boomer generation and they were the first generation to buy their own apartment (as opposed to previously granted by the SOE you worked for) and even with one child policy, my generation kids in China is the first generation to marry and live separately to their parents.
On top of that, China is serious about urbanisation. This is clear and China is nowhere near its target %. Most people in China are just trying to buy their first apartment or move into the city or buy a place for their kids to get married in. Please don't forget, China is still very much a developing nation.
Even with a lot of the so called ghost towns are just a matter of pre-planning and then fill up with people.
Also, How do you define "speculative demand" - Chinese people love property, they love to buy as many as they can and hold on for their kids and grand-kids lol (that is true for PRC Chinese, HK, Taiwan or overseas Chinese.. lol.. dont ask me why but it is in the blood lol). To me speculative buying is where one doesnt hold and just flip so if one owns more than one but intend to hold that does not count as speculative.
Yesh of course part of the buying is speculative for sure. But i wouldnt say "all" of it is, i probably wouldnt say majority of it is either. The major cities already have restrictions on owning more than 2 properties. There is a also huge difference between the tier 1, teir 2, tier 3 and so on. Very dangerous to generalise a country as diverse and big as China.
Last point, don't analyse China or Chinese realestsate using a Western mindset (even I still make that mistake sometimes) - for example to begin with, Chinese residential property on average have a much lower gearing ratio.
(off the topic: for those who are interested in the "ghost cities" - here are some good answers on the topic from some very knowledgeable people.)
https://www.quora.com/Why-does-China-have-so-many-ghost-towns
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$25.66 |
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Mkt cap ! $79.00B | |||
| Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
| $25.72 | $25.86 | $25.63 | $77.37M | 3.012M |
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| No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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| 3 | 11417 | $25.65 |
Sellers (Offers)
| Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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| $25.70 | 2000 | 1 |
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| Last trade - 16.10pm 03/05/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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Change
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